Analyzing What the Election Means for Passengers

By Sean Jeans-Gail, Vice President of Gov't Affairs + Policy

While results from this week’s election are still being tabulated, Republicans are well on their way to securing a trifecta in Washington, D.C. for the 119th Congress. We’re still in the process of sorting through the state-by-state results, but we've already identified a few key takeaways.

Opportunities and Constraints for a Second Trump White House

Donald Trump has secured a second term in the White House, making him only the second president in U.S. history to serve non-consecutive terms. While President Trump occasionally mentioned trains on the campaign trail in 2016 (mainly as one of the ways the U.S. was falling behind China), transportation wasn’t a top priority during his first term or his 2024 campaign.

In fact, there are only a few meaningful datapoints on passenger rail from his first administration, and none of them suggest that a Trump Administration 2.0 will be friendly to intercity rail programs:

• In 2017, the Trump Administration’s Presidential budget proposal called for eliminating Amtrak’s long distance passenger rail service while preserving service for the Northeast Corridor (NEC) and state supported routes. (You can read our response to that proposal here.) That proposal was rejected by Congress.
• In 2018, the Trump Administration held up funds for the Hudson River Tunnel, breaking a previously agreed-upon deal between the U.S. Department of Transportation, New Jersey, and New York. Contemporary reporting suggested that President Trump used the funding as leverage in his negotations with Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) over funding for a border wall.
• In 2019, the Trump Administration terminated a $929 million grant agreement with the State of California for its high-speed rail project. The funding was ultimately restored by the Biden Administration.

With billions in guaranteed appropriations from the BIL still waiting to be distributed through discretionary grant programs, the Trump Administration will have opportunities to advance its own rail priorities, though that process is ultimately driven by applications submitted by states and regional authorities. And there is a constructive path forward: Republican electoral gains were driven by strong support from rural voters. In a way, that’s not surprising; our staff has been traveling all across the country over the past two years as part of the effort to bring back discontinued train routes, and we’ve heard from rural communities that they feel disconnected and left behind. Thanks to the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), we have a blueprint to reconnect America with passenger rail that has the support of hundreds of communities in Red States and Blue States, and we’re ready to work with the Trump Administration and Congress to build a national rail network that serves all Americans.

Interestingly, a recent victory for conservatives on the Supreme Court, overturning “Chevron deference”, may end up constraining the kinds of administrative actions the Trump White House can take. In Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, the Roberts Court struck down a legal interpretation that allowed experts at agencies to decide technical questions that Congress left open, restricting the ability of agencies like the Federal Railroad Administration, as well as independent agencies like the Surface Transportation Board, to interpret the laws they are required to implement (you can read a full analysis of the decision by Rail Passengers’ President Jim Mathews). That decision opens a much broader swath of future administrative actions to legal challenges, putting more power in the hands of federal judges. A consistent application of Loper Bright would ultimately require more deregulatory actions to originate in Congress, where it will have to navigate narrow margins of control in the Senate and the House.

Senate Swings to Republicans

As of writing, the Republicans control the senate by a 53 to 45 margin, with ballots in Arizona and Nevada still being counted.

The Senate is losing some staunch passenger rail supporters, including Senators Jon Tester (D-MT), Sherrod Brown (D-OH), and Bob Casey (D-PA). Senator Tester will be particularly missed for his advocacy for western passenger rail corridors.

However, these new Senators also represent opportunities to add to the coalition of pro-Amtrak Republican figures in the Senate Republican caucus, currently led by Senators Roger Wicker (R-MS), Steve Daines (R-MT), and Jerry Moran (R-KS).

In both the Senate and the House, outreach to newly elected officials will be a key part of Rail Passengers’ 2025 legislative program.

House Leaning Republican

With 25 House seats still in play, control of the House of Representatives is still up in the air—although Republicans have a clearer path to the majority.

That could be cause for concern. As recently as 2023, this House GOP leadership proposed a 64 percent cut to Amtrak operations—which would’ve crippled the entire system—along with an 85 percent reduction to the Federal Transit Administration’s main capital projects program.

That effort was ultimately defeated when a bloc of recently-elected Northeastern Republicans—including Reps. Marc Molinaro (R-NY), Brandon Williams (R-NY), Mike Lawler (R-NY), Nick LaLota (R-NY), Andrew Garbarino (R-NY), Thomas Kean, Jr. (R-NJ)—stood up to their leadership, joining with the Democratic minority to block a vote on the “Kill Amtrak bill”.

That pro-Amtrak bloc took some hits this cycle, with Reps. Molinaro and Williams losing out to Democratic challengers. However, Reps. Lawler, LaLota, Garbarino, and Kean all won reelection. With margins of control for the House likely to come down to be in the single digits, the pro-Amtrak Republican caucus may still be an important voice in upcoming transportation budget negotiations.

This Congress Will Shape the Surface Transportation Reauthorization (Maybe!)

With the BIL expiring September 2026, this is the Congress that will be tasked with drafting a replacement. Our Association has been in active discussions with Congressional offices on what that bill should include: continuation of BIL funding levels, a streamlined environmental permitting process, a plan for implementing the FRA’s Long Distance Service Study, policies to speed project delivery, and building out the national rail fleet. The emphasis of these discussions may shift, but our priorities remain the same.

However, the biggest challenge this cycle won’t be found in the intercity rail title. The Transportation Trust Fund—roughly 80 percent of which goes to highway expansions, with the remainder going to assist local governments fund mass transit operations—is facing an estimated $200-plus billion deficit between projected revenue and outlays over the five years of the bill. Congress hasn’t raised the gas tax since 1993, and it’s unlikely that this Congress will be eager to enact a significant tax hike right before the midterm elections. That means either more subsidies for the trust fund (there have been $276 billion in general fund transfers to the trust fund since 2008), dramatic cuts to highway spending, or kicking the can down the road with a short-term extension. Regardless of which path Congress takes, we believe the Highway Trust Fund crisis, combined with the move away from the gas tax as the main funding source for surface transportation programs, presents an opportunity for passengers to advocate for a more balanced transportation program.

State Level Results Show Continue Support for Regional Rail

While the Presidential elections dominated headlines, there were also key ballot initiatives that showed local support for rail and transit programs remains strong.

Denver, Colorado – Measure 7A: extends tax revenue for the Regional Transportation District. Worth about $50-60 million per year, allowing RTD to avoid significant cuts to service.

Fairfax County, Virginia – Transportation Bond: authorizes $180 million in bonds for WMATA’s Capital Improvement Program, which funds upgrades and maitenance to Metro rail, bus, and paratransit service.

Maricopa County, Arizona – Proposition 479: authorizes a half-cent sales tax to fund the maintenance and operation of public transportation and light rail.

Miami-Dade County, Florida, Expand the Rapid Mass Transit System Straw Poll Measure: voters supported advising the County to expand the existing rapid mass transit system, including Metrorail, passenger rail, and Metromover.

Nashville, Tennessee – Transit Improvement Plan: authorizes a half-cent sales tax to expand of Nashville’s bus system, build out dozens of miles of sidewalks and bike lanes, and add frequencies to upgrade the WeGo Star from a commuter service to a regional rail operational model.

Washington State – Initiative 2117: voters rejected an initiative that would’ve repealed to the state’s cap-and-trade system. The cap-and-trade program will provide an estimated $3 billion for public transit, rail, and other transportation programs in the state over the next decade and beyond.